Possible predictions of Monsoon across India

The anticipation for the arrival of the southwest monsoon in various parts of India is palpable, especially with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting above-normal rainfall for the country this year. Kerala is expected to witness the onset of the monsoon around May 31, with a possible error margin of ±4 days. As the scorching heatwave grips many regions, people eagerly await the monsoon rains for relief, confident in the precision of the IMD’s forecasts. In Delhi, where temperatures soared to 48.3 degrees Celsius, no official statement regarding the monsoon’s arrival has been issued yet. However, reports suggest it might arrive around June 27, offering respite from the sweltering heatwave conditions.

According to an IMD official, Mumbai is likely to experience the monsoon showers around June 10-11. However, it’s worth noting that last year’s Cyclone Biparjoy caused a two-week delay in its onset, indicating that past weather events can influence the monsoon’s arrival. Bengaluru is predicted to welcome the monsoon by June 13-14, with rainfall expected to commence in the first week of June. Meteorologists anticipate the monsoon’s progression from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to Kerala by June 1-2, reaching the Karnataka coast by June 6-7. West Bengal, still reeling from the aftermath of Cyclone Remal, is expected to see the monsoon between June 10 and 29. The Head of RMC Kolkata, HR Biswas, noted that while there’s no direct correlation between the onset dates in Kerala and South Bengal, typically, there’s a 10-day gap between the two, allowing for predictions only after the monsoon hits Kerala.