Indian Monsoon seen to be slackening its hold

India’s monsoon rainfall surplus has fallen below 4% for the first time in 17 days, with 20 states receiving deficient rain on August 18

The monsoon surplus declined to 3.83%, marking a seventh consecutive day of decline. States like Manipur and Punjab continue to face a significant deficit of over 30%. In contrast, six others need to be more rain-deficient. Despite the decline in surplus, the water levels of reservoirs remain comfortably above average, with the southern region showing a 31% increase. However, the northern and eastern areas, which are experiencing deficient rainfall, have lower storage levels. In Punjab, storage is 69% below average, while in Bihar, it is 32% below average.

Kharif sowing has seen a marginal increase of 1.4% at 98 million hectares despite surplus rain for over three weeks. Paddy sowing is up 4.3%, and pulses are up 6.7%. However, jute and cotton sowing have declined by around 9%. According to economist of Bank of Baroda, kharif progress is satisfactory for all crops except cotton and jute, with scope for catch-up in the remaining two weeks. The government hopes to revive the agricultural sector, which grew only 1.4% in FY24, lower than the 3.7% long-term average. The decline in rainfall surplus and deficient rain in several states may impact agricultural growth, making the next few weeks crucial for the sector.