India, China Explore Partial Normalization with Guarded Optimism

India and China’s recent engagement marks a tentative step toward rebuilding relations. However, this “new normal” reflects lingering structural tensions rather than a full return to pre-2020 conditions

India and China’s recent engagement marks a tentative step toward rebuilding relations. However, this “new normal” reflects lingering structural tensions rather than a full return to pre-2020 conditions. The Kazan meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping showcased different perspectives, with India emphasizing multipolar Asia and peaceful border management. At the same time, China focused on long-term strategic interests without explicitly supporting Asian multipolarity. The limited patrolling agreement in areas like Depsang and Demchok offers only partial progress, as buffer zones and friction points from past conflicts remain, and both sides have yet to discuss concrete steps toward de-escalation. India’s view that border disputes disrupt overall peace contrasts with China’s preference to compartmentalize these issues from broader diplomatic ties.

The potential for resumed trade talks adds a positive dimension, as both sides might explore easing certain trade restrictions. However, economic frictions, including trade imbalances and India’s cautious approach to Chinese investments due to national security concerns, are likely to continue. India’s recent anti-dumping duties and Finance Minister Sitharaman’s emphasis on investment “safeguards” illustrate ongoing caution regarding Chinese economic influence. While the Modi-Xi meeting sets a foundation for future talks and potential cooperation, India’s desire for clear investment review mechanisms highlights the need for structured, predictable economic engagement. Re-engagement will require gradual, realistic expectations, with structural power dynamics and regional rivalries continuing to shape this “new normal.” Lasting normalization remains an uncertain and challenging prospect.

[Image Source: The Hill]