Decline in Terrorist attacks in Jammu & Kashmir

Data shows that terror fatalities are declining in India due to its long-term ‘holding operation’ strategy

Despite this success, a recent series of four terrorist incidents in Jammu from June 9 to 12 claimed 11 lives, including nine civilians, one security force member, and one terrorist. This cluster of attacks has sparked the usual cycle of reactions from officials and the media despite the declining trend in terrorism-related deaths. In the peak year of 2001, 4,021 lives were lost to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), averaging nearly 11 deaths per day. Comparatively, from January 1 to June 14, 2024, there were 32 fatalities, down from 39 in the same period in 2023. This decline illustrates the effectiveness of India’s security forces, contradicting claims of a terrorism surge. The recent attack on a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims in Reasi coincided with Prime Minister Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, triggering strong reactions. Ramdas Athawale, a Member of Parliament and Minister of State, suggested war with Pakistan, reflecting a popular yet unrealistic stance within the Hindutva Parivar. On the other hand, former J&K Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah advocated for talks with Pakistan despite historical evidence showing that peace talks often coincide with or follow increased terrorism. Military action has significantly reduced terrorism in J&K, bringing annual fatalities down from thousands to 134 in 2023.

This reduction is due to the efforts of the Army, Central Paramilitary Forces, and the J&K Police. Abdullah’s assertion that military action hasn’t solved anything overlooks this dramatic improvement. Prime Minister Modi’s recent call for deploying India’s full counter-terror capabilities suggests a political posture rather than a practical strategy. The notion of achieving ‘zero terrorism’ is unrealistic, given that the source of terrorism lies outside India. The government’s claim that abrogating Article 370 would bring complete peace was a political slogan rather than a feasible strategy. There is speculation that the perceived terrorism surge could delay the upcoming assembly elections. However, elections have been held in J&K under worse conditions, such as in 1996 and 2002, when terrorism was at its peak. The ongoing search for a magical solution to the Kashmir issue overlooks the success of sustained security force campaigns in reducing terrorism. In conclusion, India’s ‘holding operation’ strategy in J&K has significantly reduced terrorism, transforming a severe issue into a manageable one. Despite occasional spikes in violence, the overall trend is one of declining fatalities, underscoring the effectiveness of India’s long-term approach to counter-terrorism.

[Image Source: TheHindu]