BJP-Led NDA Likely to Win 2024 Lok Sabha Election, Says Phillip Capital

Phillip Capital forecasts the possibility of the BJP-led NDA winning the 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Philip Capital has been advising investors to buy stocks during market corrections due to anticipated political stability. The brokerage firm outlines three election outcome scenarios, all indicating the NDA retaining power. Despite concerns over low voter turnout, Phillip Capital dismisses these worries as exaggerated. The firm notes that the decline in turnout is typical of the BJP, highlighting that the Congress and YSRCP also experienced lower participation in numerous constituencies. For example, the average voter turnout till phase 6 was 65.5%, slightly down from 67.4% in 2019. In 485 constituencies where voting is completed, 155 saw higher participation, while 330 had lower turnout. Of these, 279 are currently BJP-ruled, with significant reductions in turnout in some areas of MP, UP, and Arunachal.

Phillip Capital’s base-case scenario predicts the BJP securing 290-300 seats and the NDA 330-340 seats. This scenario suggests a positive outlook for equities, earnings, and the economy, assuming policy continuity. In a bullish scenario, the BJP might win over 325 seats, resulting in more than 360 seats for the NDA, likely causing a significant rise in equities. Conversely, a bearish scenario where the BJP fails to secure a majority but the NDA forms a government under Modi might lead to a market sell-off. Given the anticipated political stability, Phillip Capital recommends investing in automation, EVs, defence, railways, logistics, ports, roads, real estate, metals, cement, energy, and financials. The firm remains optimistic about the market’s long-term prospects under a stable NDA government led by Modi.