Bangladesh’s Turbulent Transition: The Risks of Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster and the Threat of Islamist Influence
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, might not bring the happy ending many anticipate
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, might not bring the happy ending many anticipate. Bangladesh has experienced stability for so long that the potential dangers of chaos are easily overlooked. The replacement of Hasina, who had become increasingly authoritarian, by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus could be a positive change. However, despite Hasina’s paranoid tendencies, particularly her persecution of Yunus, her exit may lead to even more significant challenges. The situation in Bangladesh could resemble Egypt’s experience during the Arab Spring, when pro-democracy protests against an elected president ultimately led to military rule, leaving Cairo less free and prosperous. Hasina’s removal happened quickly, with reports indicating she had just 45 minutes to leave after 15 years in power. While Yunus is famous, he lacks a strong political base to counter the military’s influence. The only significant opposition comes from more Islamist factions, which could gain power now that Hasina and her party are discredited. This scenario mirrors Egypt’s experience, where protestors underestimated the forces they had allied with, leading to unforeseen consequences.
The aftermath of Hasina’s departure has already seen attacks on the Hindu minority, and the resurgence of Islamist forces could bring back the issues of cross-border terrorism that plagued Bangladesh in the 2000s. Hasina’s tenure saw significant progress in growth, development, and poverty reduction, mainly due to her crackdown on militancy. This success stood in stark contrast to the instability in Pakistan, highlighting the dangers of a potential shift towards Islamist control in Bangladesh. Hasina’s downfall risks undoing her legacy and tarnishing the legacy of her father, Mujibur Rahman, who led Bangladesh’s struggle for independence. The ideological battle between Mujib’s Bengali nationalism and the political Islamism of his opponents continues to shape Bangladesh’s future. The complacency of India and the West in their support for Hasina has also contributed to the current crisis. As Bangladesh faces the risk of descending into chaos, the consequences could be far-reaching, affecting not just Bangladesh but also India, the West, and the broader global community.
