Will Trump’s Second Term Change India’s Position in the Quad?

With the reinstated reign of Donald Trump, there is a chance that India will face increased U.S. pressure

With the reinstated reign of Donald Trump, there is a chance that India will face increased U.S. pressure regarding its stance within the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), especially as it prepares to host the leaders’ summit in 2025. Trump’s earlier presidency bolstered Quad’s development as part of a strategy to address China’s influence. However, while the U.S., Australia, and Japan maintain military alliances, India has avoided joining formal alliances, instead prioritizing a strategic partnership that preserves autonomy and multi-alignment, particularly with Russia and, to some extent, China. During Trump’s first term, the Indo-Pacific narrative gained momentum, with the Quad serving as a platform for collaborative efforts, beginning as a HADR initiative and evolving into a strategic group under Trump and Biden.

Trump’s return may bring a more transactional approach, focusing on the “hard security dividend” that Quad provides to the U.S. While Biden’s administration bolstered Quad’s role, advancing Indo-Pacific security partnerships like AUKUS (Australia-UK-U.S.) for nuclear submarine technology, Trump might scrutinize Quad’s strategic benefits to the U.S. more stringently. As a nuclear submarine-capable country with strong ties to Russia, India faces unique challenges within this framework. Trump’s administration must reconcile India’s non-aligned stance with U.S. expectations of more robust Quad contributions against China. India’s multi-aligned approach and recent minimal engagement with China may complicate U.S.-India alignment within the Quad. With India hosting the Quad summit in 2025, PM Modi will face strategic decisions on balancing India’s autonomy with U.S. expectations while addressing China’s regional influence.